Lead market outlook 2023 – the end of the beginning – not the beginning of the end
Agenda for
21-23 June
2023
Base metals were the worst performing commodity sector of 2022, where supply fears over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Q1 swiftly gave way to concerns over demand destruction amid a ‘perfect storm’ of macro headwinds. Meanwhile, despite this weak performance on a year-to-date basis, 2022 marked a year of significant volatility. With half of 2023 already behind us, macro forces remain at the fore front of price direction and with this in mind, we will look back in order to look forward at the macro landscape and the impact that it plays on lead prices.
• What are the Fundamentals Telling Us?
Here we will provide a detailed update for lead’s one year supply / demand outlook and market balance. In addition, we will examine how our projections have been altered from the end of 2022 (in which we presented Lead’s case at the LME Week Seminar - Metals Debate).
• What impact is Decarbonisation Having on Lead in Reality?
We will discuss the misunderstood role of lead within the decarbonation transition and provide a reality check on the impact to the lead market.
• Summary and Price Outlook
We will conclude with our summaries and medium-term price outlook, addressing key risks and opportunities for lead both world-wide and on a regional scale.
Agenda
• Lead’s Price Performance, Looking Back to Look Forward
Base metals were the worst performing commodity sector of 2022, where supply fears over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Q1 swiftly gave way to concerns over demand destruction amid a ‘perfect storm’ of macro headwinds. Meanwhile, despite this weak performance on a year-to-date basis, 2022 marked a year of significant volatility. With half of 2023 already behind us, macro forces remain at the fore front of price direction and with this in mind, we will look back in order to look forward at the macro landscape and the impact that it plays on lead prices.
• What are the Fundamentals Telling Us?
Here we will provide a detailed update for lead’s one year supply / demand outlook and market balance. In addition, we will examine how our projections have been altered from the end of 2022 (in which we presented Lead’s case at the LME Week Seminar - Metals Debate).
• What impact is Decarbonisation Having on Lead in Reality?
We will discuss the misunderstood role of lead within the decarbonation transition and provide a reality check on the impact to the lead market.
• Summary and Price Outlook
We will conclude with our summaries and medium-term price outlook, addressing key risks and opportunities for lead both world-wide and on a regional scale.
Bio
Natalie Scott-Gray is a Senior Metals Analyst in the Market Intelligence department of StoneX Financial Ltd. Based in the London office, she complements the existing StoneX commodity research presence by specialising in the LME and battery material metals markets, and has built up a regular following across clients, the press and in the wider market space. Prior to StoneX, Natalie was a Senior Metals Markets Analyst in the GFMS team at Refinitv. She specialised in precious metals activity among central banks and international financial institutions, in addition to following demand for bullion both in the paper and physical investment markets. Natalie covered precious metal fundamentals across Europe, including analysis on the automotive markets, along with the chemical and petrochemical sectors. She was also the key analyst covering materials used in rechargeable batteries, predominately utilised in both the automotive and power grid sectors. Prior to GFMS, Natalie was an oil and gas upstream analyst. She holds a Masters Degree in Chemistry from the University of Edinburgh.
